Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.448335 0.517354 0.592017 0.678605 0.776068 0.882188 1.006279
2025-06-01 0.355795 0.447879 0.554999 0.688118 0.848355 1.034225 1.265295
2025-06-08 0.282792 0.386997 0.516872 0.689002 0.909297 1.179771 1.534697
2025-06-15 0.238592 0.353759 0.507000 0.722658 1.014597 1.391857 1.911247
2025-06-22 0.185324 0.298848 0.460492 0.702293 1.048534 1.519099 2.197878
2025-06-29 0.147095 0.257810 0.426279 0.693554 1.097189 1.672187 2.538034
2025-07-06 0.115769 0.220782 0.391558 0.678636 1.135104 1.815251 2.881813
2025-07-13 0.098007 0.202187 0.382286 0.701310 1.232414 2.055675 3.393010
2025-07-20 0.080232 0.179525 0.362233 0.703377 1.297772 2.255511 3.865445
2025-07-27 0.067847 0.164122 0.352075 0.720699 1.390489 2.508443 4.446581
2025-08-03 0.057712 0.150768 0.343228 0.738957 1.487200 2.778131 5.081355
2025-08-10 0.045331 0.129104 0.313802 0.713679 1.502913 2.913486 5.507741
2025-08-17 0.034338 0.107664 0.281080 0.678046 1.498173 3.019463 5.907390
2025-08-24 0.027679 0.094938 0.264609 0.673103 1.552205 3.237315 6.526196
2025-08-31 0.022029 0.082921 0.246987 0.662530 1.593756 3.437263 7.133823
2025-09-07 0.018963 0.077456 0.244304 0.685589 1.708874 3.789952 8.057483
2025-09-14 0.014542 0.065747 0.222364 0.658798 1.712910 3.926010 8.585148
2025-09-21 0.011469 0.057228 0.206838 0.644744 1.743207 4.117958 9.238887
2025-09-28 0.008922 0.049345 0.190870 0.626212 1.760320 4.284236 9.856755
2025-10-05 0.007657 0.046094 0.188339 0.643615 1.865642 4.647732 10.904241
2025-10-12 0.006256 0.041432 0.179847 0.642535 1.925320 4.917954 11.781495
2025-10-19 0.005329 0.038515 0.176532 0.656086 2.024138 5.284687 12.891715
2025-10-26 0.004561 0.035954 0.173776 0.670895 2.128373 5.673468 14.079419